Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -120 WGA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +32 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | WGA -1.0 (+33.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -0.8 (+31.2) | 139.9 (-21.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WGA -1.8 (+33.8) | 140.8 (-22.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WGA -1.3 (+33.3) | 139.9 (-21.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WGA -1.7 (+33.7) | 140.5 (-22.5) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WGA 87 – 73 JAX |
| Jan 24, 2025 | JAX 79 – 62 WGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 80.5 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#332) | -7.1 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#301) | -0.27 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#316) | -1.33 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#271) | 0.497 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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