Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | WGA -105 JAX -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WGA +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | WGA -0.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -0.4 (+14.4) | 141.2 (+18.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WGA -0.6 (+13.4) | 139.6 (+20.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WGA -0.3 (+13.7) | 140.5 (+19.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -0.1 (+14.1) | 141.0 (+19.0) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | JAX 75 – 43 WGA |
| Jan 24, 2025 | JAX 79 – 62 WGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WGA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#321) | -8.8 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#297) | -1.30 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#310) | -1.76 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#281) | 0.452 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WGA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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