Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | WGA +475 JAX -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +17 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -7.7 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -6.5 (-10.5) | 135.9 (+5.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -9.0 (-8.0) | 137.3 (+3.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -8.6 (-8.4) | 138.9 (+2.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -7.9 (-9.1) | 138.7 (+2.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WGA 87 – 73 JAX |
| Jan 10, 2026 | JAX 75 – 43 WGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WGA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#338) | -0.8 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#345) | 0.35 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.53 (#347) | 0.63 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#330) | 0.523 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WGA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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