Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | STET +380 APSU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +12 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -11.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -10.7 (-1.3) | 142.5 (+7.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -10.3 (-1.7) | 144.8 (+5.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -10.1 (-1.9) | 141.7 (+8.3) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -10.0 (-2.0) | 142.5 (+7.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | APSU 69 – 60 STET |
| Jan 23, 2026 | APSU 73 – 65 STET |
| Feb 15, 2025 | APSU 76 – 63 STET |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STET 94 – 91 APSU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | STET 83 – 82 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-1 |
| Away | 2-14 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#345) | 0.9 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#275) | 0.13 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#272) | -0.04 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#297) | 0.512 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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