Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -500 STET +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -11.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -11.2 (+1.8) | 146.5 (-7.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -8.5 (+4.5) | 146.4 (-7.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -11.2 (+1.8) | 146.1 (-7.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -10.2 (+2.8) | 146.6 (-7.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | APSU 69 – 60 STET |
| Jan 23, 2026 | APSU 73 – 65 STET |
| Jan 10, 2026 | APSU 81 – 69 STET |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STET 94 – 91 APSU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | STET 83 – 82 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-13 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#273) | -14.7 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#248) | -2.37 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#245) | -3.12 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#239) | 0.400 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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