Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | STET -200 APSU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +3 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | STET -3.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+37.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -3.6 (-0.6) | 149.8 (+35.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -4.1 (-1.1) | 150.4 (+34.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -3.8 (-0.8) | 150.7 (+34.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -2.5 (+0.5) | 151.3 (+33.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | APSU 69 – 60 STET |
| Jan 23, 2026 | APSU 73 – 65 STET |
| Jan 10, 2026 | APSU 81 – 69 STET |
| Feb 15, 2025 | APSU 76 – 63 STET |
| Jan 26, 2024 | STET 83 – 82 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 10-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#218) | -3.5 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#152) | -0.18 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#187) | -0.39 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#129) | 0.511 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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