Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -1800 STET +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -16.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -12.8 (-4.8) | 145.1 (-7.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -13.6 (-5.6) | 146.1 (-8.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -12.0 (-4.0) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -13.0 (-5.0) | 144.4 (-6.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | APSU 69 – 60 STET |
| Jan 10, 2026 | APSU 81 – 69 STET |
| Feb 15, 2025 | APSU 76 – 63 STET |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STET 94 – 91 APSU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | STET 83 – 82 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#153) | -12.6 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#149) | -1.36 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#159) | -1.79 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#134) | 0.422 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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