Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | STET -163 APSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +1 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | STET -3.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -2.9 (-1.9) | 142.7 (+22.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -4.0 (-3.0) | 140.2 (+24.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -2.7 (-1.7) | 141.8 (+23.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -2.4 (-1.4) | 143.6 (+21.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | APSU 69 – 60 STET |
| Jan 23, 2026 | APSU 73 – 65 STET |
| Jan 10, 2026 | APSU 81 – 69 STET |
| Feb 15, 2025 | APSU 76 – 63 STET |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STET 94 – 91 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 10-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#220) | -2.8 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#170) | -0.49 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#207) | -0.77 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#147) | 0.478 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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