Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -800 STET +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -10.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -8.5 (+0.5) | 147.4 (-18.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -8.6 (+0.4) | 148.2 (-19.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -8.6 (+0.4) | 147.7 (-18.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -8.5 (+0.5) | 148.7 (-19.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | APSU 73 – 65 STET |
| Jan 10, 2026 | APSU 81 – 69 STET |
| Feb 15, 2025 | APSU 76 – 63 STET |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STET 94 – 91 APSU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | STET 83 – 82 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#163) | -10.7 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#133) | -1.47 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#155) | -1.72 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#95) | 0.435 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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