Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -218 UNCA +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +19 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -2.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -2.1 (-21.1) | 147.4 (+15.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -2.7 (-21.7) | 146.7 (+16.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -2.4 (-21.4) | 145.6 (+17.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -2.4 (-21.4) | 147.8 (+15.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNCA 74 – 73 RAD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | RAD 77 – 53 UNCA |
| Jan 29, 2025 | UNCA 72 – 65 RAD |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 62 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2024 | UNCA 81 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#247) | -4.6 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#269) | -1.03 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#275) | -1.24 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#278) | 0.457 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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