Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | RAD +110 UNCA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +9 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -0.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -0.1 (-8.9) | 150.4 (-17.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.4 (-8.6) | 148.8 (-15.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -0.4 (-8.6) | 148.3 (-15.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -0.2 (-8.8) | 150.5 (-17.5) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNCA 74 – 73 RAD |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCA 91 – 72 RAD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | RAD 77 – 53 UNCA |
| Jan 29, 2025 | UNCA 72 – 65 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2024 | UNCA 81 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 12-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-0 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#220) | 0.3 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#229) | 0.37 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#216) | 0.43 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#209) | 0.542 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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