Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -140 RAD +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -3.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -2.4 (+4.6) | 147.2 (-10.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -3.4 (+3.6) | 144.5 (-7.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.7 (+4.3) | 146.0 (-9.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -2.1 (+4.9) | 146.9 (-9.9) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNCA 74 – 73 RAD |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCA 91 – 72 RAD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | RAD 77 – 53 UNCA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 62 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2024 | UNCA 81 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#188) | -1.6 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#123) | 0.39 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#142) | 0.56 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#95) | 0.526 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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