Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | RAD -165 UNCA +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -2.8 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -2.6 (+21.4) | 146.4 (-16.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -2.2 (+21.8) | 147.2 (-17.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -2.4 (+21.6) | 146.6 (-16.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -1.9 (+22.1) | 147.5 (-17.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNCA 74 – 73 RAD |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCA 91 – 72 RAD |
| Jan 29, 2025 | UNCA 72 – 65 RAD |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 62 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2024 | UNCA 81 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 11-5 |
| Home | 10-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#191) | -1.3 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#151) | 0.76 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#145) | 0.70 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#139) | 0.569 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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