Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -142 RAD +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -4.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -3.4 (-2.4) | 148.0 (-1.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -3.6 (-2.6) | 146.2 (+0.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -3.3 (-2.3) | 144.1 (+2.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -3.1 (-2.1) | 144.1 (+2.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCA 91 – 72 RAD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | RAD 77 – 53 UNCA |
| Jan 29, 2025 | UNCA 72 – 65 RAD |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 62 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2024 | UNCA 81 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 80.8 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#223) | -5.1 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#256) | -1.01 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#237) | -1.33 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#219) | 0.452 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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