Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -250 RAD +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -4.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -3.8 (+8.2) | 146.3 (+3.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -4.2 (+7.8) | 144.9 (+5.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -4.2 (+7.8) | 146.1 (+3.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -3.9 (+8.1) | 147.0 (+3.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNCA 74 – 73 RAD |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCA 91 – 72 RAD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | RAD 77 – 53 UNCA |
| Jan 29, 2025 | UNCA 72 – 65 RAD |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 62 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#175) | -1.6 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#128) | 0.22 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#139) | 0.31 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#103) | 0.510 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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