Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -305 UNH +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -8.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -6.8 (-5.8) | 140.0 (+9.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -6.2 (-5.2) | 137.1 (+11.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.2 (-5.2) | 137.7 (+11.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -6.3 (-5.3) | 139.6 (+9.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UMBC 86 – 68 UNH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 5-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#271) | -11.5 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#262) | -2.62 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#262) | -3.66 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#273) | 0.419 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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