Betting Lines
| Spread | UNH -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | UNH -250 UMBC +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +18 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UNH -8.6 (-26.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNH -6.6 (-24.6) | 160.6 (-6.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNH -7.1 (-25.1) | 157.2 (-3.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNH -6.6 (-24.6) | 156.6 (-2.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNH -7.1 (-25.1) | 159.9 (-5.9) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 7-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#198) | -7.4 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#153) | -1.82 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#170) | -2.01 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#130) | 0.399 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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