Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNH +340 UMBC -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNH +1 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -7.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -6.8 (+7.8) | 152.8 (+4.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.7 (+6.7) | 152.3 (+4.7) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -5.9 (+6.9) | 150.3 (+6.7) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.2 (+7.2) | 152.5 (+4.5) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UMBC 86 – 68 UNH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-9 |
| Away | 2-15 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -17.3 (#360) | -6.9 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#356) | -1.34 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.60 (#355) | -1.48 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#356) | 0.438 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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