Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNH +124 UMBC -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +22 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -2.6 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -3.2 (-18.8) | 140.0 (+8.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -3.7 (-18.3) | 139.4 (+8.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -3.1 (-18.9) | 137.2 (+10.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.7 (-19.3) | 139.0 (+9.0) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UMBC 86 – 68 UNH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-16 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#324) | -5.7 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#340) | -0.96 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.72 (#336) | -1.33 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#314) | 0.465 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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