Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -1350 UNH +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -14.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -14.3 (+0.7) | 138.2 (+14.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -11.4 (+3.6) | 140.9 (+12.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -13.8 (+1.2) | 137.7 (+15.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -12.5 (+2.5) | 137.4 (+15.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UMBC 86 – 68 UNH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 5-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#207) | -13.7 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#221) | -2.60 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#220) | -3.13 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#188) | 0.417 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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