Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -1800 UNH +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNH +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -16.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -12.5 (-15.5) | 150.0 (+5.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -10.0 (-13.0) | 152.0 (+3.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -11.4 (-14.4) | 150.4 (+4.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -11.8 (-14.8) | 151.0 (+4.0) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UMBC 86 – 68 UNH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-9 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#240) | -17.0 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#261) | -3.29 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#262) | -3.93 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#270) | 0.361 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 19.7% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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