Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -550 WAKE +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +3 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -9.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -9.9 (-6.9) | 151.9 (+19.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -10.1 (-7.1) | 145.6 (+25.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -9.7 (-6.7) | 146.6 (+24.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -10.7 (-7.7) | 148.8 (+22.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | UNC 68 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 22, 2025 | WAKE 67 – 66 UNC |
| Jan 23, 2024 | UNC 85 – 64 WAKE |
| Feb 8, 2023 | WAKE 92 – 85 UNC |
| Jan 5, 2023 | UNC 88 – 79 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 18-0 | 13-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#30) | 10.2 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#17) | 1.44 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.19 (#23) | 1.75 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#15) | 0.566 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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