Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -600 WAKE +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +9 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -11.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -9.5 (-0.5) | 156.9 (+10.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -8.6 (+0.4) | 155.2 (+11.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -9.6 (-0.6) | 156.1 (+10.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -10.1 (-1.1) | 157.0 (+10.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNC 87 – 84 WAKE |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UNC 68 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 22, 2025 | WAKE 67 – 66 UNC |
| Jan 23, 2024 | UNC 85 – 64 WAKE |
| Feb 8, 2023 | WAKE 92 – 85 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#29) | 5.1 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#32) | 2.00 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#30) | 2.60 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#10) | 0.615 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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