Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -400 WAKE +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +21 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -10.4 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -11.0 (+10.0) | 154.6 (-5.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -9.8 (+11.2) | 153.1 (-4.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -10.6 (+10.4) | 153.1 (-4.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -10.1 (+10.9) | 152.8 (-3.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNC 87 – 84 WAKE |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UNC 68 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 22, 2025 | WAKE 67 – 66 UNC |
| Feb 8, 2023 | WAKE 92 – 85 UNC |
| Jan 5, 2023 | UNC 88 – 79 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 17-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#9) | 11.7 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#3) | 1.79 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.23 (#4) | 2.39 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#6) | 0.585 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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