Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE +195 UNC -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +9 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -6.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -4.3 (-4.7) | 145.2 (-18.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -4.2 (-4.8) | 145.0 (-18.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -4.0 (-5.0) | 147.0 (-20.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -4.0 (-5.0) | 145.8 (-18.8) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNC 87 – 84 WAKE |
| Jan 22, 2025 | WAKE 67 – 66 UNC |
| Jan 23, 2024 | UNC 85 – 64 WAKE |
| Feb 8, 2023 | WAKE 92 – 85 UNC |
| Jan 5, 2023 | UNC 88 – 79 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#77) | 14.1 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#47) | 2.15 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#51) | 2.72 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#67) | 0.595 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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