Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -111 UNC -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +7 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -0.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -1.0 (+6.0) | 154.8 (+22.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -0.5 (+6.5) | 153.4 (+23.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -0.4 (+6.6) | 154.1 (+22.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -0.6 (+6.4) | 154.7 (+22.3) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNC 87 – 84 WAKE |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UNC 68 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 22, 2025 | WAKE 67 – 66 UNC |
| Jan 23, 2024 | UNC 85 – 64 WAKE |
| Jan 5, 2023 | UNC 88 – 79 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#76) | 11.0 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#62) | 1.92 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#59) | 2.66 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#73) | 0.597 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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