Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE -105 UNC -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -4.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.5 (+2.5) | 143.7 (-10.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -0.6 (+1.6) | 142.0 (-9.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -0.9 (+1.9) | 142.1 (-9.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -1.5 (+2.5) | 144.9 (-11.9) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNC 87 – 84 WAKE |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UNC 68 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 23, 2024 | UNC 85 – 64 WAKE |
| Feb 8, 2023 | WAKE 92 – 85 UNC |
| Jan 5, 2023 | UNC 88 – 79 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#88) | 14.0 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#32) | 2.16 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#42) | 2.93 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#48) | 0.620 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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