Betting Lines
| Spread | IDHO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | IDHO -125 MTST +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDHO +3 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | IDHO -0.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+38.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDHO -0.8 (+2.2) | 142.8 (+38.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDHO -1.5 (+1.5) | 141.6 (+39.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDHO -1.5 (+1.5) | 139.8 (+41.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDHO -0.6 (+2.4) | 140.6 (+40.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | IDHO 78 – 74 MTST |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MTST 73 – 66 IDHO |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MTST 75 – 60 IDHO |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDHO 69 – 64 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2024 | MTST 62 – 48 IDHO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#175) | 2.5 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#171) | -0.00 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#173) | 0.14 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#208) | 0.503 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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