Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -240 IDHO +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -7.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.3 (+8.7) | 146.0 (-11.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -5.9 (+9.1) | 146.4 (-11.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -6.1 (+8.9) | 145.3 (-10.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -5.6 (+9.4) | 146.9 (-11.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | IDHO 78 – 74 MTST |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MTST 73 – 66 IDHO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IDHO 92 – 89 MTST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDHO 69 – 64 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2024 | MTST 62 – 48 IDHO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#181) | -5.7 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#239) | -1.02 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#219) | -1.25 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#245) | 0.451 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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