Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -142 IDHO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -4.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -4.1 (+2.9) | 144.9 (-5.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.1 (+2.9) | 145.5 (-6.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -3.9 (+3.1) | 142.3 (-3.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -3.8 (+3.2) | 143.2 (-4.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | IDHO 78 – 74 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IDHO 92 – 89 MTST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MTST 75 – 60 IDHO |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDHO 69 – 64 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2024 | MTST 62 – 48 IDHO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#142) | 0.1 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#184) | -0.14 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#158) | -0.12 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#193) | 0.482 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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