Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | IDHO +100 MTST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDHO +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -0.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDHO -0.1 (+4.9) | 147.9 (-14.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDHO -0.6 (+4.4) | 145.5 (-12.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDHO -0.6 (+4.4) | 148.4 (-15.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDHO -0.1 (+4.9) | 149.1 (-16.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | IDHO 78 – 74 MTST |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MTST 73 – 66 IDHO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IDHO 92 – 89 MTST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MTST 75 – 60 IDHO |
| Mar 1, 2024 | MTST 62 – 48 IDHO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#253) | -0.3 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#241) | -0.63 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#236) | -0.36 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#210) | 0.474 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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