Betting Lines
| Spread | IDHO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -102 IDHO -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDHO +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -1.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -1.8 (-5.8) | 142.6 (+9.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -1.5 (-5.5) | 142.1 (+9.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -1.6 (-5.6) | 140.0 (+12.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -1.8 (-5.8) | 142.0 (+10.0) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | MTST 73 – 66 IDHO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IDHO 92 – 89 MTST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MTST 75 – 60 IDHO |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDHO 69 – 64 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2024 | MTST 62 – 48 IDHO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#128) | 0.5 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#171) | -0.33 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#145) | -0.31 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#145) | 0.482 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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