Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USA -130 GASO +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | USA -3.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.6 (+13.4) | 146.0 (+12.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -3.0 (+13.0) | 151.6 (+6.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.4 (+12.6) | 149.0 (+9.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -2.4 (+13.6) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GASO 94 – 85 USA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | USA 76 – 47 GASO |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GASO 76 – 71 USA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USA 78 – 65 GASO |
| Dec 30, 2022 | GASO 64 – 50 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#228) | -3.5 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#160) | -0.10 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#165) | -0.74 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#194) | 0.480 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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