Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | GASO +150 USA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +14 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | USA -4.2 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -2.4 (+16.4) | 133.3 (-19.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -2.7 (+16.7) | 131.3 (-17.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.5 (+16.5) | 132.3 (-18.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.1 (+17.1) | 133.4 (-19.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GASO 94 – 85 USA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USA 87 – 71 GASO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | USA 76 – 47 GASO |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GASO 76 – 71 USA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USA 78 – 65 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#272) | 3.3 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#253) | 0.18 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#245) | 0.63 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#252) | 0.542 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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