Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | USA -205 GASO +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +9 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -3.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.6 (-12.6) | 148.7 (+30.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -3.3 (-12.3) | 148.9 (+30.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -3.5 (-12.5) | 147.3 (+31.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.5 (-12.5) | 147.9 (+31.1) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | USA 87 – 71 GASO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | USA 76 – 47 GASO |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GASO 76 – 71 USA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USA 78 – 65 GASO |
| Dec 30, 2022 | GASO 64 – 50 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#200) | -5.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#142) | -0.52 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#160) | -0.93 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#131) | 0.469 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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