Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | GASO +175 USA -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +29 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -5.6 (-23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -5.3 (-23.7) | 139.3 (-16.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -5.4 (-23.6) | 139.0 (-16.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -6.0 (-23.0) | 140.0 (-17.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -5.1 (-23.9) | 141.5 (-18.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GASO 94 – 85 USA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USA 87 – 71 GASO |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GASO 76 – 71 USA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USA 78 – 65 GASO |
| Dec 30, 2022 | GASO 64 – 50 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#274) | 3.4 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#173) | 0.21 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#218) | 0.62 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#187) | 0.492 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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