Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | USA -167 GASO +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +5 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -3.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -2.7 (-7.7) | 150.8 (-3.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -2.8 (-7.8) | 149.6 (-2.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.7 (-7.7) | 148.5 (-1.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -2.6 (-7.6) | 149.2 (-2.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GASO 94 – 85 USA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USA 87 – 71 GASO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | USA 76 – 47 GASO |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USA 78 – 65 GASO |
| Dec 30, 2022 | GASO 64 – 50 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#243) | -7.2 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#217) | -1.63 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#212) | -1.57 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#235) | 0.415 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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