Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | USA -175 GASO +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USA -6.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -5.2 (+7.8) | 150.0 (-7.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -5.3 (+7.7) | 150.1 (-7.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -5.1 (+7.9) | 148.3 (-5.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -4.5 (+8.5) | 149.2 (-6.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GASO 94 – 85 USA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USA 87 – 71 GASO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | USA 76 – 47 GASO |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GASO 76 – 71 USA |
| Dec 30, 2022 | GASO 64 – 50 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#277) | -9.0 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#245) | -1.75 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#250) | -1.89 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#255) | 0.400 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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