Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -305 UNLV +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -11.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -10.7 (-2.7) | 145.9 (-13.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -9.2 (-1.2) | 147.7 (-15.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -9.5 (-1.5) | 145.2 (-13.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -9.2 (-1.2) | 148.0 (-16.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CSU 91 – 86 UNLV |
| Feb 23, 2025 | CSU 61 – 53 UNLV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CSU 84 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UNLV 66 – 60 CSU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CSU 78 – 75 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#91) | -0.7 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#89) | -0.20 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#80) | -0.54 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#81) | 0.493 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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