Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -260 UNLV +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +22 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -6.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -6.1 (+15.9) | 141.7 (+4.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -6.0 (+16.0) | 139.0 (+7.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -5.5 (+16.5) | 140.5 (+5.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -5.2 (+16.8) | 140.5 (+5.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CSU 91 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CSU 70 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 23, 2025 | CSU 61 – 53 UNLV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UNLV 66 – 60 CSU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CSU 78 – 75 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#87) | 3.2 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#103) | 0.77 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#96) | 1.10 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#136) | 0.529 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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