Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -333 UNLV +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -10.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -9.6 (-6.6) | 145.7 (+7.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -8.1 (-5.1) | 144.5 (+8.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -8.9 (-5.9) | 144.9 (+8.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -9.1 (-6.1) | 144.6 (+8.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CSU 91 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CSU 70 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 23, 2025 | CSU 61 – 53 UNLV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CSU 84 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UNLV 66 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#27) | 6.9 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#20) | 1.02 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#16) | 1.42 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#10) | 0.572 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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