Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -155 CSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +5 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -0.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -0.7 (-5.7) | 143.6 (+33.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -0.2 (-5.2) | 143.7 (+33.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -0.2 (-5.2) | 145.5 (+31.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -0.1 (-5.1) | 146.0 (+31.0) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CSU 70 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 23, 2025 | CSU 61 – 53 UNLV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CSU 84 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UNLV 66 – 60 CSU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CSU 78 – 75 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | 6.0 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#109) | 0.81 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#122) | 1.26 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#117) | 0.525 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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