Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +275 TULN -345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +33 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -5.6 (-27.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -4.8 (-28.2) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -6.5 (-26.5) | 138.4 (-1.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -5.8 (-27.2) | 139.2 (-2.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -6.2 (-26.8) | 141.6 (-4.6) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2025 | TULN 61 – 60 UTSA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TULN 92 – 63 UTSA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UTSA 89 – 88 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 2-12 | 10-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.9 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#340) | -4.1 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#300) | 0.68 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#299) | 0.18 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#244) | 0.539 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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