Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TULN -250 UTSA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +29 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -7.1 (+21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -5.7 (+23.3) | 152.2 (+2.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -4.7 (+24.3) | 147.4 (+7.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -4.3 (+24.7) | 149.0 (+6.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -4.9 (+24.1) | 150.7 (+4.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | TULN 85 – 52 UTSA |
| Feb 6, 2025 | TULN 61 – 60 UTSA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UTSA 89 – 88 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#165) | -3.4 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#285) | -0.44 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#254) | -1.01 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#309) | 0.498 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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