Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | AF +1000 UNM -1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +42 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -18.7 (-23.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -17.4 (-24.6) | 132.7 (+7.3) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -15.6 (-26.4) | 134.6 (+5.4) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -15.1 (-26.9) | 131.1 (+8.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -18.8 (-23.2) | 131.1 (+8.9) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
| Feb 24, 2024 | AF 78 – 77 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 13-7 |
| Home | 3-15 | 17-3 |
| Away | 0-12 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L25 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#328) | 10.8 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#316) | 2.42 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#310) | 3.01 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#300) | 0.620 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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