Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -5000 AF +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +37 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -29.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -29.9 (+7.1) | 144.2 (+14.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -24.2 (+12.8) | 143.3 (+15.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -22.1 (+14.9) | 142.0 (+17.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -27.9 (+9.1) | 143.5 (+15.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
| Feb 24, 2024 | AF 78 – 77 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 0-20 |
| Home | 17-3 | 3-15 |
| Away | 7-5 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#45) | -14.0 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#47) | -2.05 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#47) | -2.31 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#44) | 0.434 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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