Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -8000 AF +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -22.6 (-23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -17.8 (-18.8) | 142.4 (+12.6) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -17.2 (-18.2) | 144.8 (+10.2) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -17.9 (-18.9) | 145.6 (+9.4) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -17.4 (-18.4) | 144.0 (+11.0) | 90% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-12 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#20) | -4.8 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#19) | -1.17 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#28) | -1.09 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#14) | 0.439 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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