Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -7500 AF +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +21 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -24.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -20.0 (+1.0) | 144.7 (+18.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -21.4 (-0.4) | 142.8 (+20.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -20.1 (+0.9) | 145.4 (+17.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -20.5 (+0.5) | 145.8 (+17.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
| Feb 24, 2024 | AF 78 – 77 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 1-19 |
| Home | 15-1 | 3-13 |
| Away | 7-4 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#42) | -8.2 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#33) | -2.20 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#24) | -2.42 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#26) | 0.411 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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