Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -1600 AF +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +26 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -17.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -15.6 (+10.4) | 143.7 (-5.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -15.5 (+10.5) | 143.8 (-5.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -14.9 (+11.1) | 145.0 (-7.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -14.8 (+11.2) | 145.8 (-7.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Feb 24, 2024 | AF 78 – 77 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-12 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#21) | -4.3 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#38) | -0.96 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#37) | -1.06 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#33) | 0.437 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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