We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Air Force Falcons
53 88
FINAL Conference
New Mexico Lobos
Mountain West Conference · Clune Arena · February 8, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -14.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money AF +1000 / UNM -2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total AF win
Actual UNM +35 141 Lost
Massey UNM -17.1 (-17.9)
Massey Totals 145.4 (-4.4)
Bradley-Terry 1%
Weighted B-T 0%
Efficiency Plus ML UNM -14.4 (-20.6) 146.5 (-5.5) 12%
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -16.1 (-18.9) 144.7 (-3.7) 13%
Baseline ML UNM -15.3 (-19.7) 145.7 (-4.7) 12%
Baseline Plus ML UNM -18.1 (-16.9) 147.6 (-6.6) 11%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 18, 2026 UNM 9861 AF
Jan 10, 2026 UNM 9149 AF
Mar 1, 2025 UNM 9271 AF
Mar 13, 2024 UNM 8256 AF
Feb 24, 2024 AF 7877 UNM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AF UNM
Overall 4-28 27-8
Conference 1-19 17-3
Home 3-13 15-1
Away 0-14 7-4
Neutral 1-1 5-3
Last 5 0-5 5-0
Streak L5 L1
Avg Pts For 61.9 79.3
Avg Pts Against 73.7 70.6
Massey -7.1 (#278) 13.2 (#39)
Bradley-Terry -2.32 (#340) 2.62 (#30)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.53 (#329) 3.77 (#19)
RPI 0.402 (#333) 0.627 (#17)
Shooting & Four Factors AF UNM
FG% 43.4% 45.7%
3PT% 34.6% 34.6%
REB / G 30.0 40.5
OREB / G 7.7 12.4
AST / TO 0.98 1.32
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.4% 51.2%
TOV% 20.8% 15.7%
ORB% 24.4% 31.9%
FT Rate 24.2% 25.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.4% 48.4%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 19.9%
DRB% 71.2% 73.5%
Opp FT Rate 24.4% 23.0%

Game Analysis

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